Stock Market Key Metrics, 2-Stock Picks "BUYS" of the Week, DIA and SPY Monday Forecast, Tracking SPDR 12 SELECT SECTORS ETFs, Calendar of Economic Events & Corporate Earnings
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Friday September 23, 2016 DJIA Closed: 18261.45 -131.01 vs. 18123.80 -88.68 Prior week, -.32% BELOW its FALLING 21-day moving average of 18319.21 vs. 18391.15 Prior week. (Overbought: Above 21-DMA +4.61 reached on 10-23-15) vs. (Oversold: Below 21-DMA -6.21% reached on 1-15-16 (Historic High: 10.56% on 3-26-09 vs. Historic Low: -26.03% on 5-7-10). Upper 3.5% band: Falling 18960.40D vs. Lower 3.5% band: Falling 17678.00D
DIA Trend: 8-day M/A 181.80D vs. 21-day M/A 183.11D Spread: -1.31U vs. -1.52D Prior Week ("M/A Trend Crossover SELL Signal" occurred on 9-1-16.) (Historic High Spread: +5.30 11-7-14 / Historic Low Spread: -7.14 8-15-11). (*A Favorite Indicator as the Spread acts as an early warning signal of a shift in portfolio positions by smart money moving in, or out, of the DIA.)
DIA Price Volatility: Increased Friday 1.23 Up from -0.58 Thursday.
(Historic High: 35.10 8-25-15, Low: -10.76% 8-31-15)(5.30+ is considered High Volatility on the immediate horizon. Move to the sidelines when this occurs.)
DIA Proposed Range: Monday 1.23 vs. 1.23 Actual Range Friday.
(Historic High: 4.31 3-31-09 / Historic Low: 0.60% 7-19-16)
DIA Price Momentum: Rose 68%U vs. 65%N Prior week (Historic High: 100% 2-22-12, 97% 4-22-16 / Historic Low: 3% on 9-4-15, 3% 8-21-15, 3% 8-19-11, 3% 6-30-09, and 3% on 10-22-08)
DIA MACD: MACD Crossover "Neutral" Signal on 9-23-16.
DIA 5-Day Stochastic%D: Rose 74U vs. 30D Prior week (Historic High: 100 / Historic Low: 0)
DIA Relative Strength 14-Day: Rose 43%U vs. 41%U Prior week
(High 100 3-19-10 / Low 0 7-6-10 & 8-10-11) (Overbought =+75) / (Oversold =-25)
DIA Commodity Channel Index: Rose 26U vs. -93U Prior week (Overbought: =>+200 / Oversold: =<-200>) (Historic High: 309.49 12-12-14, 306 11-4-10 / Historic Low: -318 5-6-10, -312 8-21-15.)
McClellan Oscillator: Rose 42.20U vs. -126.40U Prior week (an overbought / oversold indicator.) (Historic High: 386.03 1-6-09 & 332.00 3-3-16 / Historic Low: -438.08 8-8-11)
Summation Index: Rose 2716.74U vs. 2655.74D Prior week ("Bull Market Breakout" +2500.00 / "Bear Market Breakdown" -2500.00)(Historic High: 5599.98 9-22-09 / Historic Low: -4699.43 11-20-08)
DIA Outlook: Rose 49%U vs. 44%D Prior Week (*A Favorite Indicator as it tracks Institutional Sentiment.) (Historic High: 98% 7-22-16 / Historic Low: 2% 3-11-09)
DIA Probability of Being "UP" Monday, 9-26-16: 94% vs. 77% Last Monday
(a reading of 52+ is positive, a reading of 48- is negative) (Historic High: 100 / Historic Low: 0)
Dow 30 + DIA: 14 Buy vs. 17 Sell, Unch 45%N vs. 45%U Prior Week. (A reading of 52+ is Positive, a reading of 48- is Negative.) (*A Favorite Indicator as its direction most often predicts near term market action.) (an 87%+ reading is Overbought, 97% was reached 7-22 & 7-15-16); (a 13% reading is Oversold, reached on 12-3-15 & 6-15-15, 10% on 8-26-15, 6% on 9-11-15.) (Historic High: 100 / Historic Low: 0)
DIA Directional Indicator: Rose -14U vs. -23D Prior Week (Historic High: 133 10-28-15 / Historic Low: -117 8-26-15)
SPY Directional Indicator: Rose -6U vs. -15U Prior Week (Historic High: 149 10-28-15 / Historic Low: -127 8-26-15)
QQQ Directional Indicator: Rose 19U vs. 13U Prior Week (Historic High: 121 10-28-15 / Historic Low: -71 1-8-16)
IWB Directional Indicator: Rose 18U vs. 16U Prior Week (Historic High: 94 11-14-14 / Historic Low: -87 8-28-15)
IWM Directional Indicator: Rose 22U vs. 16D Prior Week (Historic High: 91 11-14-14 / Historic Low: -87 8-28-15)
IWM/IWB Computation: (IWM Close 124.81U vs. IWB Close 120.73U) Spread: Rose 1.03U vs. 1.02N Prior Week (Small Cap Relative Strength Ratio is calculated taking the daily closing value of the Russell 2000 Index, and dividing it by the Russell 1000. If the line moves upward, then the Russell 2000 is outperforming on a relative basis.
That can mean going up faster, or going down more slowly. If the line is moving downward, then the small cap universe is generally doing worse than the large caps, on a relative basis. (*A Favorite Indicator as the Spread points to a shift in portfolio positions by risk capital investors moving in, or out, of Small Cap stocks.)
S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (SPDAUDP Close: 962.98U vs. 947.59 Last Week) Directional Indicator: Rose -99U vs. -173D Prior Week (Historic High: 997.68 7-14-16 / Historic Low: 794.14 1-20-16)
SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY): Fell 6U vs. 9U Prior Week (Historic High: 86.54 8-15-16 / Historic Low: 66.86 1-20-16)
DIA Resistance: 185.34
DIA Support: 178.97
DIA and SPY Monday Forecast
Description: Diamonds (Dow 30 Exchange Traded Fund)
09/23/16 Final Numbers
DIA 09/26/16 Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 182.90
Today's Predicted High: 183.04
Today's Predicted Low: 181.81
Today's Proposed Range: 1.23
Buy/Sell Rating: Sell
Binary Ladder Pricing
183.65 Upside Potential R2
183.52 Upside Potential R1
183.26 High Level R2
183.04 Low Level R1
182.90 Pivot Point
182.29 High Level S1
181.81 Low Level S2
181.19 Downside Potential S1
179.71 Downside Potential S2
Description: SPDR S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund
09/23/16 Final Numbers
SPY 09/26/16 Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 216.37
Today's Predicted High: 216.69
Today's Predicted Low: 215.30
Today's Proposed Range: 1.39
Buy/Sell Rating: Buy
Binary Ladder Pricing
217.38 Upside Potential R2
217.07 Upside Potential R1
216.89 High Level R2
216.69 Low Level R1
216.37 Pivot Point
215.68 High Level S1
215.30 Low Level S2
214.60 Downside Potential S1
212.39 Downside Potential S2
SPDR 12 Select Sector ETFs
Week ending September 23, 2016
89% XLU (Utilities)
83% XLRE (Real Estate)
75% XBI (Biotech)
74% GXC (China)
70% XLF (Financials)
68% XTL (Telecommunications)
68% XLK (Information Technology)
64% XLI (Industrials)
63% XLV (Healthcare)
63% XLB (Materials)
49% XLE (Energy)
35% XRT (Retail)
33% XLY & XLP (Consumer Discretionary & Staples combined)
AVERAGE: 70% KEY: 52%-100% = Positive, 48%-0% = Negative
Week ending September 16, 2016
75% XLU (Utilities)
70% XLF (Financials)
70% GXC (China)
66% XBI (Biotech)
65% XTL (Telecommunications)
59% XLK (Information Technology)
58% XLB (Materials)
52% XLV (Healthcare)
48% XLI (Industrials)
46% XLE (Energy)
32% XRT (Retail)
31% XLY & XLP (Consumer Discretionary & Staples combined)
AVERAGE: 56% KEY: 52%-100% = Positive, 48%-0% = Negative
Week ending September 9, 2016
80% XLF (Financials)
69% GXC (China)
64% XLB (Materials)
59% XLE (Energy)
59% XTL (Telecommunications)
58% XLU (Utilities)
44% XLK (Information Technology)
43% XBI (Biotech)
42% XLI (Industrials)
36% XLV (Healthcare)
29% XRT (Retail)
24% XLY & XLP (Consumer Discretionary & Staples combined)
AVERAGE: 51% KEY: 52%-100% = Positive, 48%-0% = Negative
Week ending September 2, 2016
89% XLF (Financials)
77% XLB (Materials)
69% XTL (Telecommunications)
67% GXC (China)
60% XLI (Industrials)
57% XLK (Information Technology)
54% XLE (Energy)
50% XLU (Utilities)
41% XLV (Healthcare)
41% XRT (Retail)
38% XBI (Biotech)
37% XLY & XLP (Consumer Discretionary & Staples combined)
AVERAGE: 57% KEY: 52%-100% = Positive, 48%-0% = Negative
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Selected Stocks this Week to BUY/Go-Long (9-26-16 to 9-30-16) "BULLISH":
"CCMP and OTTR"
#1-Stock Pick "BUY" of the Week
CCMP (09/23/16 Close 52.50) Earnings Date: October 27, 2016
Cabot Microelectronics Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells polishing slurries and pads used in the manufacture of advanced integrated circuit (IC) devices in the semiconductor industry in a process called chemical mechanical planarization (CMP). The CMP technology is a polishing process used by IC device manufacturers to planarize or flatten the multiple layers of material that are deposited upon silicon wafers. The company offers CMP slurries, which are liquid solutions composed of high-purity deionized water, proprietary chemical additives, and engineered abrasives that chemically and mechanically interact with the surface material of the IC device at an atomic level; and CMP pads that are engineered polymeric materials designed to distribute and transport the slurry to the surface of the wafer and distribute it evenly across the wafer. Its CMP slurries are used for polishing various materials that conduct electrical signals, including tungsten, copper, tantalum, and aluminum; and certain materials that are used in the production of rigid disks and magnetic heads for hard disk drives, as well as used in the dielectric insulating materials that separate conductive layers within logic and memory IC devices. The company also designs and produces precision polishing and metrology systems to attain near-perfect shape and surface finish on various optical components, such as mirrors, lenses, and prisms. It serves the producers of logic IC devices or memory IC devices, and providers of IC foundry services. The company operates in the United States, Asia, and Europe. Cabot Microelectronics Corporation was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.
CCMP 09/26/16 Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 52.33
Today's Predicted High: 52.84
Today's Predicted Low: 52.16
Today's Proposed Range: 0.68
Buy/Sell Rating: Buy
Binary Ladder Pricing
53.44 Upside Potential R2
53.18 Upside Potential R1
52.84 High Level R2
52.67 Low Level R1
52.33 Pivot Point
52.16 High Level S1
51.99 Low Level S2
51.82 Downside Potential S1
51.17 Downside Potential S2
#2-Stock Pick "BUY" of the Week
OTTR (09/23/16 Close 36.13) Earnings Date: November 2, 2016
Otter Tail Corporation engages in electric, manufacturing, and plastics business in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Panama. It operates in three segments: Electric, Manufacturing, and Plastics. The Electric segment produces, transmits, distributes, and sells electric energy in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, as well as operates as a participant in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Inc. markets. This segment serves approximately 130,000 residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers. The Manufacturing segment stamps, fabricates, welds, paints, and laser cuts metal components for use in the recreational vehicle, agricultural, oil and gas, lawn and garden, industrial equipment, health and fitness, and enclosure industries; and manufactures and fabricates parts for off-road equipment, mining machinery, oil fields and offshore oil rigs, wind industry components, broadcast antennae, and farm equipment, as well as for equipment manufacturers. This segment also manufactures and sells thermoformed products for the horticulture industry; and manufactures products, such as clamshell packing, blister packs, returnable pallets, and handling trays for shipping and storing odd-shaped or difficult-to-handle parts for customers in the consumer products, food packaging, electronics, industrial, medical, and other industries. The Plastics segment manufactures and sells polyvinyl chloride pipes for municipal water, rural water, wastewater, storm drainage system, and other uses. This segment markets its products to wholesalers and distributors through independent sales representatives, company salespersons, and customer service representatives. The company was formerly known as Otter Tail Power Company and changed its name to Otter Tail Corporation in 2001. Otter Tail Corporation was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Fergus Falls, Minnesota.
Most Recent "Bullish" Stock Picks:
IDCC (09/2/16 Close 71.96); QLYS (09/2/16 Close 35.53), CBU (08/26/16 Close 46.77); SFNC (08/26/16 Close 49.44); ALOG (08/19/16 Close 89.40); PCG (08/19/16 Close 64.79); SINA (08/12/16 Close 70.54); CHMT (08/12/16 Close 30.53); HWAY (08/5/16 Close 17.76); EFC (08/05/16 Close 17.55); GTY (07/29/16 Close 22.72); DGX (07/29/16 Close 86.36); SABRA (07/22/16 Close 24.17); HPT (07/22/16 Close 31.811); ELS (07/15/16 Close 80.42); OTTR (07/15/16 Close 33.90); IGN (07/8/16 Close 35.93); EDR (07/8/16 Close 46.37); BKH (07/1/16 Close 64.08); DCM (07/1/16 Close 27.38); AWK (06/24/16 Close 79.93); CWT (06/24/16 Close 33.45); YORW (06/24/16 Close 30.72); CNS, Inc. (06/17/16 Close 39.68); SCG (06/17/16 Close 71.42); AGX (06/10/16 Close 42.96); STR (06/10/16 Close 25.04); MKSI (06/3/16 Close 41.57); EXLS (06/3/16 Close 52.28); KELYA (05/27/16 Close 19.80); GEL (05/20/16 Close 38.22); HSKA (05/13/16 Close: 39.56); JEC (05/06/16 Close: 48.65); E (04/29/16 Close: 32.77); MKTX (04/22/16 Close: 129.46); HTS (04/15/16 Close: 15.94).
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Calendar of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings: Coming off the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) most recent policy decision, Fed talk is set to dominate Wall Street for yet another week. Specifically, traders will hear from a number of regional Federal Reserve presidents, as well as Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Much attention will also be paid to the final reading on second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which will be released on Thursday. The earnings calendar is rather bare for the week, though blue chip Nike (NKE) is scheduled to report.
Monday, September 26
The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey and new home sales will kick off the week's economic data. Meanwhile, traders will hear from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), Carnival (CCL), and Vail Resorts (MTN) will report earnings.
Tuesday, September 27
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and Conference Board's consumer confidence survey will be released Tuesday. NKE and Cintas (CTAS) make up the earnings slate.
Wednesday, September 28
On Wednesday, Wall Street will digest durable goods orders, weekly crude inventories, and comments from several regional Fed presidents. Among those expected to speak are Neel Kashkari once again, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and Kansas City Fed President Esther George. For earnings, Blackberry (BBRY) and Pier 1 Imports (PIR) will report.
Thursday, September 29
The final reading on second-quarter GDP highlights Thursday's economic schedule. Pending home sales, international trade data, and weekly jobless claims will also be released. Elsewhere, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a conversation at the Kansas City Fed's Minority Bankers Forum. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, and Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell will all speak throughout the day, as well.
Accenture (ACN), Conagra (CAG), Costco (COST), and PepsiCo (PEP) comprise the earnings calendar.
Friday, September 30
Rounding out the week are personal income and spending, the Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI), and consumer sentiment. McCormick (MKC) is the only company set to report earnings.
Good luck and good trading!
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